International Business and Technology Blog

Scotland: business or Braveheart

Posted by John Worthington on Mon, Sep 15, 2014

flag of scotland independenceScotland: No or Yes to "Independence", the big issue currently exercising the directly concerned 65 million minds in Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland (United Kingdom). Will or won't, the 3 million Scots (95% of the UK population is effectively disenfranchised) who are eligible to vote, decide No (= stay) or Yes (= leave) to the Union of 1703. Their decision will have a huge direct impact on the whole of the UK and beyond as the fallout, directly impacts the European Unions' 28 nations and 350 million citizens. If Yes, Scotland will be out of the UK and the EU, avowedly seeking to be admitted in, as #29. A huge topic on its own.

Again looking outside Scotland there are some 40 million who claim Scottish descent (the Scots of the Empire did travel) of which 27 million are Scottish Americans (with US Tartan day, April the 6th..) becoming comparable in size, but not voice to the Irish American diaspora (39 million). The Braveheart impact, released in 1995, artfully portraying events in Sterling, Scotland in 1297, invites a sentimental inclination to Yes, ensuring Mel Gibson did not act in vain.

Now lets just get that reality check. Cold hard analysis has it that Scotland alone will suffer big time economically, the huge risks associated with currency and being out of Union with both Britain and Europe, alone ensures that money (and then business) will head south. Austerity will follow, the Independence Party promises' of public spending largesse will remain just that. Of the many economically foreboding articles I read, the most insightful drew the Quebec parallel. Since the Quebecois Independentists victory of 1976, the province has suffered relative economic decline, lower levels of per capita GDP, maintained by high public debt and Canada's federal transfer program. This model tells us that smart (quick) money will leave Scotland immediately, businesses (slow) will follow over the next years...

And there we have it, Scotland's choice is business (No) or Braveheart (Yes). Scotland can, probably will, declare itself sovereign, but without the financial resources, this will be an illusion of independence. Roll on Thursday the 18th September 2014.

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